My buddy Al has a wonderful website for Brewer fans (http://albethke.blogspot.com/). I've known Al since we worked together at Toys R Us back in the early 90's. He really, really knows his stuff about baseball. I was honored that he asked me to participate in his annual year-end "roundtable" discussing certain questions about the Brewers past season and future plans. I'm not a numbers guy, per se, but that's what Al was looking for, I guess. There are plenty of others in the rountable that ARE numbers guys, so I offer a possible different opinion. Keep checking Al's site for the final posting. I'll give you a sneak peak at my answers, though:
AL: It is my continued contention that a healthy Brewers' team that finished the season on the 25 man roster and the DL is more talented than the NL's World Series representative, the St. Louis Cardinals. What's your feeling on that view?
JASON: I know, Al, that you and many folks do not believe in intangibles, so let's just call it "luck" that the Cardinals are in the World Series in 2006. Your argument is entirely plausable. Let's go through by position.
Catcher: Edge-Milwaukee. The situation as is is just fine with me. Nothing spectacular either way, but the offensive productions of Miller and Rivera I feel more than offset the defensive advantage Molina brings. I'm not certain about the future, but that's not the question here.
1B: Edge-St. Louis. Pujols is my pick for best player in the game right now. While Prince couldn't have had a much better rookie season, Albert has to get the nod here.
2B: Edge-Milwaukee. A healthy Weeks makes a comparison to St. Louis' group laughable. Belliard was a nice pickup, but Weeks was really starting to put together his complete game.
SS: Edge-Milwaukee. This assume Hall would be/should be the starting SS all along. Hall was among the best shortstops PERIOD, and ranked right up there on historical levels for hitting as a SS, though Mr. Sutton might disagree as Eckstein's hustle makes him the best ever.
3B: Edge-St. Louis. Rolen is worth nowhere near his big contract, but I would take him over a healthy Koskie in a heartbeat if money isn't a consideration.
OF: Edge-Even. The OF situation really was thrown into a tizzy with injuries and the Lee trade. While overall I think the Cards may have a bit of an advantage, properly managing the players the Brewers had could have made a difference. This was perhaps my biggest knock on Yost this year. Platooning Mench and Jenks in right while giving Hart left and the healthy or hot stick between Clark/Gwynn/Nix in center could have optimized the situation.
SP: Edge-Milwaukee. The Cards have the bigger names, but the Brewer starters really did well and if completely healthy for the season I believe would have outperformed them. The overall pitching stats for the season are quite close (Brewers WHIP, I believe, was slightly better), and we know of the struggles many of the Brewer relievers had.
RP: Edge-St. Louis. Hands down. There are some bright spots for the Brewers (Shouse was one, and of course CoCo was as well), but the Cards seem to be much more consistent. So, overall, yes, I think the Brewers certainly were at least on par with the Cardinals.
AL: Do you see the Brewers as 2007 contenders or not?
JASON: I saw them as contenders for 2006, and there isn't a whole lot that is changing my mind about this team for next year. I'd like to see the outfield situation stabilized and the addition of a mid-level reliever or two. But if nothing changed from this moment on (I know, impossible with free agents, etc.) and everyone comes back healthy I would still believe the playoffs are well within reach.
AL:Jenkins/Turnbow/Ohka...what would you do with them if you were in charge?
JASON: I keep Jenkins as the outfield is a bit of a jumbled mess right now. Never, ever have him face a lefty starter and he will be set up to succeed. If that happens, the Brewers have the option of flipping him at the deadline depending on their situation.
I'm not ready to give up on Turnbow long term just yet. If another team wants him, fine, but I'm not actively shopping him. I keep him in a middle relief role until/if his confidence and slider return.
I like Ohka a lot, but he's going to command more money than I think he is worth. For a fraction of the price we could get probably lesser, but similar production from Villanueva or Jackson. Use the money savings to improve the bullpen.
AL: He's so good, he derserves his own question...what would you do with Bill Hall, and what will the Crew do?
JASON: I think it's important to keep Hall happy, and if I recall correctly he indicated he would like to have one position if possible. Does JJ Hardy have the ability to play third or second? I have this feeling that Koskie will not be back, and Hardy is a better fit of the typical "super-sub" type player. So, ideally I'd like to have Hall as my starting shortstop with Koskie at third and Hardy as my utility guy. I don't see Graffy back, so Hardy fills his role along with Cirillo. If Koskie doesn't come back, I put Hall at third and JJ at short.
AL: OK, what moves do you feel Doug and Gord will make this offseason?
JASON: I think we're going to see a relatively quiet offseason, as I think they are under the impression that injuries were the real downfall of this team last year. I alluded to it previously that I would like to see some relief help come in, but I'm torn between getting proven relievers or giving kids like Eveland, Sarfate, and Hendrickson a shot. Well, maybe the "shot" for those guys will be with another team as part of a trade. An outfielder with some thump would be nice, but I don't see the Brewers overpaying for one as much as they would a reliever or PERHAPS another starting pitcher if Okha goes. Can you imagine a Sheets/Cappy/Schmidt/Davis/Villy rotation?
It's fun to dream, but I think outside of some minor moves it's going to be silent.
AL: Finally, are you as optimistic as I am about the next few years? I feel this team is on the brink of a half-decade long run of success.
JASON: I never thought I would be compelled to follow the "Minor League" forum on Brewerfan.net more than I do the "Major League" forum, but that's exactly what has happened over the last couple of years. The true stars of the major league squad are young, and the talent is still bubbling up from the minors. It's amazing to think about how good this team could be for a decent amount of time if the injury bug doesn't take it all away. We begin to change realistic expectations (like if Yo gives up a run or two in a start), and that's when optimism takes a back seat to all-out excitement. Fans of this team have suffered for a long time, but that makes the reward that much sweeter.
